[Commentary by M. Necati Ozfatura under "Foreign Policy" column: "The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict". Istanbul TURKIYE in Turkish 13 Dec 91 p 5]

[Excerpts] Nagorno-Karabakh's population was 94 percent Turkish before the Red Army invaded and occupied Azerbaijan. As part of its long-term Caucasus policy, the communist regime massacred and forcibly deported the Turks inhabiting these lands, settling Armenians who had come from various countries and regions in their place. Not satisfied with this, the regime thrust a dagger into the heart of Azerbaijan in the form of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast. This festering wound grew into a cancer by 1988. [passage omitted]

The present status quo is transitory. Armenians are greatly mistaken if they think 3.4 million Armenians could defeat the Turkish world, which is 50 times their size. Besides, the Christian West, Russia, and the European Community--in whom Armenians have put all their trust--are eking out their final years in the Caucasus. The 21st century will be a Turkish and Islamic one. The Armenians, who are being instigated by the West and pushed into a major calamity in pursuing a greater Armenia, are digging their own graves. If they had not betrayed the Ottomans in the past, there now would be 4 million Armenians in Anatolia. Today they only number some 40,000. If they resort to schemes, Armenians inevitably would suffer the same fate in the Caucasus (including Armenia) in the first quarter of the 21st century. [passage omitted]

Conditions are not ripe at present for a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but as soon as possible Turkey must help train and equip the Azerbaijani national army with powerful weapons. Every effort should be made for detente until the Azerbaijani army is formed and gains strength. A war in Caucasus is inevitable. The West not only is Armenia's protector and the agitator for a greater Armenia but also aims at taking control of the Caucasus as it did the Persian Gulf. In addition, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and east and southeast Anatolia are the first targets of Iranian imperialism. Iran provides the greatest help to Armenia.

Germany sees Turkey as its main rival in the Balkans and the Caucasus. After the German unification, the "policy of opening to the East" has been given a new impetus. The Russian Federation is plotting to annex the Caucasus from the Soviet Union. The imperialist forces are trying to Lebanonize the Balkans and the Caucasus. Just as the conflict between the Serbs and Croats might drag that region into a full-fledged war, a conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is fraught with the danger of engulfing the entire Caucasus in an all-out war.